Testing out prose – on hurricane advisories

This theme and this environment are both growing on me, truth be told. I just wanted to see what would happen if I wrote a block of prose and posted it. So what follows is a test, only a test, and always a test:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 271459
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

ERNESTO’S CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING BUT  THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN  SEMICIRCLE…AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE  WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST  AIRCRAFT-EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997  MB…SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO  STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD YUCATAN…THE  SHEAR OVER ERNESTO IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.  THUS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WOULD BE  OVER CUBA FROM HOUR 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME  WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE  DECAY SHIPS MODEL RATHER CLOSELY. HOWEVER…AFTER THE CENTER  MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…SIGNIFICANT  RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY AT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME  WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER….ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THE PROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/8. A CONTINUED  NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL  GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TAKE  ERNESTO OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF CUBA. A  MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN 3-5 DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 0600 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT THE 0600 UTC NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS 2100 UTC TODAY.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s