Noel, Noel, Noel, Noel

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Tropical storm travelling.

Here’s what the (American) National Hurricane Center has to say:

…NOEL MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN CUBA…

AT 8 AM EDT…1200Z…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA…CAMAGUEY…LAS TUNAS… HOLGUIN…AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST…OR ABOUT 35 MILES…60 KM…WEST-NORTHWEST OF HOLGUIN CUBA…AND ABOUT 275 MILES…445 KM…SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. HOWEVER…NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALL OF THE
BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS…PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA… ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…21.0 N…76.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

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